1) General guidance for product and building LCA studies
The main difference between LCA studies with comparative assertions and stand-alone LCA studies lies in the fact that some parameters or assumptions are the same in both cases (also called ‘conventional parameters’) so that the number of uncertainty sources may be considerably reduced. In this case, the practitioner should check only whether the LCA results remain robust even if the stand-alone LCA is uncertain on several parameters (e.g. epistemic such as like the linear relations between flows, processes and impacts; the life expectancy of a building etc.).Another problem for the LCA practitioner lies in selecting an adequate method to assess the uncertainty. Various quantitative methods exist in the literature to assess uncertainties, such as Monte Carlo simulation, for example. Other methods, such as fuzzy logic and statistical Bayesian methods, have been developed and applied to LCA by researchers.However, most of these sophisticated numerical methods are currently not implemented in user-friendly LCA software for buildings, so the practitioner typically cannot easily use them.Based on the state of the art of building LCA tools, the best way to conduct an uncertainty analysis is to carry out scenario analyses that assess the most significant parameters of the LCA study. It is then possible to check whether one alternative still remains better than another in the various scenario analyses.The main issue is to identify the parameters, and to define their ranges of variation.
More information on scenarios for LCA in construction can be found in a previous report of the LoRe-LCA European project (FP7), available online.
2) Specific guidance for advanced building LCA studies
LCA may often be used as a decision-making tool to support a comparison of alternatives, e.g. during the building design stage. In this case, it is relevant to have guidelines on how to assess whether the choice of the best alternative from an LCA point of view is robust when using uncertain aspects of the building LCA model. Different steps may be conducted for a detailed analysis:
– Identification and quantification of uncertainties for the key parameters
Uncertainty sources for building LCA studies can be found for the various contributors:
– building products: the LCA data of the building materials, the reference service life of the building products, the quantity take-off;
– energy consumption: the LCA data of the energy processes, value taken from thermal simulation software;
– water consumption: the LCA data of the water processes and treatment, the value determined with a calculation tool.
In addition, uncertainty can be found in the methodological choices made by the practitioner within the LCA software (data used, calculation rules etc.)
These sources of uncertainty may be assessed by defining distribution curves (e.g. log-normal, normal, triangle, Weibull) and then by deriving the relevant statistical parameters (e.g. the confidence interval at 95% or other statistical parameters if relevant).
This may provide relevant information for building LCA practitioners: for example, for a building product, the share of uncertainties linked to the reference service life (RSL), the LCA data or the quantity take-off (if these three sources of uncertainty are relevant for the study). A similar approach can be applied to the operational energy and water impact values.
– Propagation of uncertainties in building LCA results
For a building case study, the relative share of impacts driven by building products, operational energy or water use, etc. can be identified and the corresponding uncertainties assessed.
This approach allows building LCA results to be presented with e.g. a mean value and a standard deviation (as e.g. 10 kg eq-CO2/m²/yr ±1.4 for the GWP indicator of a building).
This is the first step in identifying the sources of uncertainty in building LCA results. If relevant, these uncertainties can be reduced, e.g. by collecting more accurate/precise data.
– Use of distribution curves for the key parameters in comparative assertions
The uncertainties for the key parameters can then be used in a comparative assertion for two building case studies (fulfilling the ISO 14044, ILCD and EeBGuide requirements, e.g. the two buildings shall have the same functional equivalent). This allows the practitioner to assess whether alternative A is better than B when taking uncertainties into account. If the standard deviations of alternatives A and B do not overlap, then the comparative LCA results can be considered robust. If they do overlap, it is not possible to state that A is better than B, given the corresponding uncertainties. |